Consequences of the Preventive Measures Adoptes against COVID-19 on the Load of the National Interconnected System (SIN) in Brazil in 2020

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Flores Escalante, Rodrigo Alejandro
Giménez Ledesma, Jorge Javier

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The medium-term planning model NEWAVE uses a strategy for determining optimal operational policy, associated with Equivalent Energy Reservoirs. Its main result can be represented by the formulation of the Future Cost Function, essential for determining water values and the use of stored energy. In March 2020, restrictive measures to combat the pandemic began in Brazil, with impacts on the profile of the load curve. In this paper, an example will be presented of these impacts, based on the results of the NEWAVE model, analyzing two monthly reviews of the Monthly Operation Program (PMO) in 2020 and also, a new case using the PMO January 2022 to review the impacts on the load. The results of the analyzed PMO cases indicated a reduction in the expectation of growth in the load of the National Interconnected System, which corresponds to approximately 5,000 MWmed over the study horizon. This load reduction had an impact on the hydroelectric and thermal dispatch indicated by the model. The hydroelectric reduction was 4.654,74 MWmed and for the termal was 973,54 MWmed. After almost two years of the pandemic the reduction on the load it remains, the load just gains 83 MWmed after the restrictive measures taken. In 2021 the National Interconnected System was affected by water shortages; the levels of the reservoirs were inferior and it had to take emergencies measures, more thermal production to keep the system security. The ITAIPU hydroelectric dam reduced the power generation with values smellers than those obtained by the PMO cases.


Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso apresentado ao Instituto Latino-Americano de Tecnologia, Infraestrutura e Território da Universidade Federal da Integração Latino-Americana, como requisito parcial à obtenção do título de Bacharel em Engenharia de Energia.