A Miniskyan-Fisherian SFC model for analyzing the linkages of private financeial behavior and public debt

Abstract

This paper builds a stock-fl ow consistent (SFC) model to analyze how private fi nancial behavior impacts fi scal variables, by exploring the linkages between the fi nancial and productive sides of the economy with prices given by a Phillips curve. We study three different fi scal expenditure regimes: 1. Automatic stabilizer: government expenditures follow an exogenous long run trend; 2. Countercyclical fiscal expenditure; 3. Fiscal austerity: government reduces expenditures when it faces an increase in its debt to capital ratio. The model has three major implications, ratifying Keynesian intuitions. First, an increase in public debt is an unintended consequence of contractionary fi nancial conditions. Second, in most cases countercyclical fi scal expenditures improve both the economic activity and the trajectory of public debt to GDP. Third, austerity policies postpone and magnify the after-shock adjustment, and may not be compatible with fi scal soundness